BOROCHAT
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by Balders31/1 17:05Sat Jan 31 17:05:51 2026
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Modelling the playoffs...
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I've updated the Poisson model, and have adapted the model for playoff knockout football and a neutral venue final.
I don't really trust the results..
Link to Article.
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Bradford and Bolton both losing.
I don't know what to believe any more!
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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I'd rather Bolton win! Don't think we are competing with them for a spot. It's Huddersfield, Luton and Plymouth we need to lose
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Huddersfield are unbeaten since 1987 i think.
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Late equalisers in both games!
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Lovely stuff
Edited by SFCfox at 14:32:52 on 18th April 2026
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Net points Bolton have taken off us this week: one
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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So, we're favourites to go up. Excellent!! 😁
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Bit fishy...
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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STEVE LE
WHOAOOOAOAOOALAOA
LE POISSON STEVE
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Irritatingly fishy. The closing of the article addresses it directly.
"The whole thing started as a fun experiment to test some new modelling skills and got a bit out of hand. So it’s worth being clear what the numbers actually mean.
Bolton drew 0-0 at Stevenage and as mentioned earlier, pumped Boro 5-1 on their own patch. Across their two league meetings this year Bolton have heavily outscored Stevenage. The model looks at Stevenage’s defensive ratings, runs 20,000 simulations, and spits out a number suggesting that Stevenage would shade a Wembley final 56% of the time. That is simply what the model suggests.
My money is on Bolton this season. Football couldn’t give a fuck about statistical models."
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Think what you’ve done is brilliant Nate, very interesting. But you’ve definitely hit the nail on the head with the last sentence.
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Somehow making the final and shithousing the living daylights out of Bolton would be the culmination of 20 years grafting.
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Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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It would be delicious
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