BOROCHAT

Modelling the playoffs...

By NateToday 17:04Today at 17:04:13

Views: 77

I've updated the Poisson model, and have adapted the model for playoff knockout football and a neutral venue final.

I don't really trust the results..


Link to Article.

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Re: Modelling the playoffs...

By SevToday 17:19Today at 17:19:42In response to Modelling the playoffs...Top of thread

Views: 61

Bit fishy...

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2 people

Re: Modelling the playoffs...

By H BombToday 17:57Today at 17:57:30In response to Re: Modelling the playoffs...Top of thread

Views: 29

STEVE LE
WHOAOOOAOAOOALAOA
LE POISSON STEVE

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Re: Modelling the playoffs...

By NateToday 17:28Today at 17:28:29In response to Re: Modelling the playoffs...Top of thread

Views: 55

Irritatingly fishy. The closing of the article addresses it directly.

"The whole thing started as a fun experiment to test some new modelling skills and got a bit out of hand. So it’s worth being clear what the numbers actually mean.

Bolton drew 0-0 at Stevenage and as mentioned earlier, pumped Boro 5-1 on their own patch. Across their two league meetings this year Bolton have heavily outscored Stevenage. The model looks at Stevenage’s defensive ratings, runs 20,000 simulations, and spits out a number suggesting that Stevenage would shade a Wembley final 56% of the time. That is simply what the model suggests.

My money is on Bolton this season. Football couldn’t give a fuck about statistical models."

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Re: Modelling the playoffs...

By TucksToday 18:50Today at 18:50:48In response to Re: Modelling the playoffs...Top of thread

Views: 5

Think what you’ve done is brilliant Nate, very interesting. But you’ve definitely hit the nail on the head with the last sentence.

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