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Next thread: Fleetwood (Away) - Are we expecting a big turn out? by fatcakzsfc21/11/2023 11:24Tue Nov 21 11:24:03 2023view thread

MT - Fleetwood

By S4 Boro25/11/2023 15:11Sat Nov 25 15:11:13 2023

Views: 1560

1-0 Boro, Jamie Reid.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Chuds25/11/2023 18:21Sat Nov 25 18:21:05 2023In response to MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 1189

Our best ever start to League One.

- Most wins.
- Most points.
- Most scored.
- Fewest conceded.
- Most clean sheets.
- Joint-fewest defeats.

Jamie Reid is joint top-scorer in the division.

No club has as many clean sheets in the entire EFL as us, with our ten from 19 games.

That is six consecutive wins in all competitions, for the first time since March-April 2011.

Special team.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By WASP (Original Mr Wasp)25/11/2023 15:12Sat Nov 25 15:12:48 2023In response to MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 1499

Absolute belter of a goal

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By S4 Boro25/11/2023 15:13Sat Nov 25 15:13:32 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 1457

No idea as not at the game, but I'd happily take a boring 1-0 win today.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By WASP (Original Mr Wasp)25/11/2023 16:28Sat Nov 25 16:28:18 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 1370

I’ve got a VPL connection
https://x.com/sbfcnocontext/status/1728433344851960156?s=46&t=itnbzD-LxVE80w6W3cBDgg

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By S4 Boro25/11/2023 16:34Sat Nov 25 16:34:43 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 1311

Thanks. Have you got one of the second goal too please sir?

Doesn't the yellow and blue kit look mint!!! We need to keep them colours for a while now I think as either away or third choice kit.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By WASP (Original Mr Wasp)25/11/2023 16:56Sat Nov 25 16:56:54 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 1269

I didn’t record the game.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By SFCfox25/11/2023 16:56Sat Nov 25 16:56:38 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 1292

Fantastic performance.

Enjoy your day out Boro fans!

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By RockyBottom25/11/2023 17:21Sat Nov 25 17:21:22 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 1304

Rode our luck massively today. It may seem strange saying this as we won 3-0, but they could easily have had 5-6. They attack so well, just couldn't finish and will no doubt hurt some sides this season.

Massive 3 points and just the kind we need to be picking up to stay in the playoff hunt.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Chuds25/11/2023 18:42Sat Nov 25 18:42:39 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 970

Disagree.

I thought it was a comfortable and very professional victory, and at no stage during the game did I ever fear we wouldn't win it. Hitting the bar a couple of times doesn't change that, a shot against the bar is a shot off target.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Sev25/11/2023 23:03Sat Nov 25 23:03:05 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 738

They were good at shooting off target and into our players.

I would say it wasn't a thrashing as a 3 nil might suggest, but the difference was we defended well and took our chances.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By RockyBottom25/11/2023 18:46Sat Nov 25 18:46:58 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 961

They had 31 shots today. They get a goal before we get that second, I think they go on to win.

I'm not saying it wasn't a professional victory, but IMO certainly wasn't comfortable until we got the second.

They'll concede a fair few, but score a load as well.

Edited by RockyBottom at 18:47:33 on 25th November 2023

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Rob SBFC (Big Robbie (SBFC))25/11/2023 23:49Sat Nov 25 23:49:38 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 722

This is xG level fuckheadedness. 3 GOALS versus fucking flange goals. What more do you want???

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Chuds25/11/2023 19:31Sat Nov 25 19:31:27 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 920

How many of them were genuine chances you would say they should have scored though?

Don't get me wrong, that was far from our best performance, they controlled possession and had far more shots (and spread the ball around well, attacking with pace down the flanks), but I felt we defended pretty easily and kept them at arm's length, and as I say above, I genuinely never felt we wouldn't win. Our defenders are too good.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Old_man27/11/2023 21:59Mon Nov 27 21:59:20 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 587

Whilst their finishing wasn't great they did have 2 off the bar.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Chuds27/11/2023 22:28Mon Nov 27 22:28:01 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 558

So two shots off target?

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By AgentEves27/11/2023 19:23Mon Nov 27 19:23:58 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 681

"How many of them were genuine chances you would say they should have scored though?"

If only there was a stat that could tell you that...

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Chuds27/11/2023 19:37Mon Nov 27 19:37:47 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 666

I don't need a bullshit "stat" when I saw them with my own eyes and the answer was none.

Which is also the number of times they scored.

So that's interesting.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Sev27/11/2023 21:15Mon Nov 27 21:15:57 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 614

I think some people use expected goals in the wrong context. It doesn't mean literally what you expect the number of goals to be.

It's from the statistical term "expected value" meaning the most likely outcome/value of a repeated experiment.

The other question for me is whether the dataset being used is appropriate. Opta use a different set of data of shots and their probabilities for the women's games compared to the men's, because if they applied the men's model to women's it would skew the value (due to likelihood of closer shots going in being higher in women's and further away shots less likely than men's).

So is it appropriate to use data from PL matches to apply to L2 matches etc. Also that historical data doesn't take into account injuries or particular team's strengths and weaknesses in a given season.

For example the probability of a penalty being scored is 0.79 based on loads of data. But who maybe you don't have a penalty taker or he is injured and your team actually only scores penalties with likelihood of 0.5.

So all it's saying really is on average if a team had that many shots in those positions, the expected value of goals would be X goals.

Not massively insightful to me but I suppose what it does tell you is that if your expected goals was 4 and you scored none, then you're worse than the average team historically at converting those particular types of chances you had in that game.

Well that's my take on it anyway from trying to find out what it is in the past. I may have got some detail wrong.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Chuds27/11/2023 21:25Mon Nov 27 21:25:01 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 593

I know, but I like to mock it and always will do. It is for football hipsters.

We both watched the entire game, we both believed we won pretty comfortably, and neither of us believed we would not win during the game. That is the only data I need. Which is also what the league table was updated with.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By AgentEves28/11/2023 14:55Tue Nov 28 14:55:36 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 476

"It is for football hipsters."

Not classifying yourself as a football hipster seems to suggest a smidge lack of self-awareness.

I'm not having a dig. I don't think being a football hipster is a bad thing. But you literally run a social media account about lower league football stats. That's peak football hipster.

You also wear pointy shoes, which is also incredibly hipster.

Don't fight it. Just embrace it.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Chuds28/11/2023 16:51Tue Nov 28 16:51:27 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 429

The Championship is not lower league.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By AgentEves28/11/2023 20:13Tue Nov 28 20:13:24 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 396

Did we get promoted when I wasn't looking?

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Chuds28/11/2023 20:40Tue Nov 28 20:40:08 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 386

It is inevitable.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Rob SBFC (Big Robbie (SBFC))28/11/2023 15:07Tue Nov 28 15:07:13 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 464

I think he's too old to be a hipster

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By AgentEves28/11/2023 20:13Tue Nov 28 20:13:07 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 395

I think the term hipster is pretty specific to Millennials. So as we age, so does the term. That's my take, at least.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By AndyC29/11/2023 07:29Wed Nov 29 07:29:15 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 350

I thought hipsters were late 20s, maybe early 30s these days. 40+ year olds trying to.be hipster is pretty tragic

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By AgentEves1/12/2023 00:46Fri Dec 1 00:46:07 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 298

The oldest Millennials are 42. Most Millennials are late-20s to mid-30s.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Rob SBFC (Big Robbie (SBFC))28/11/2023 23:52Tue Nov 28 23:52:36 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 357

Millennials? If only

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By AgentEves29/11/2023 03:48Wed Nov 29 03:48:05 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 369

Is Chuds not a millennial? I assumed he's a similar age to me (36). He doesn't look 6+ years older than me.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Rob SBFC (Big Robbie (SBFC))29/11/2023 11:11Wed Nov 29 11:11:43 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 330

He's a baby boomer. he lies about his age

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Sev28/11/2023 14:58Tue Nov 28 14:58:50 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 448

And an account for the HSC.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Sev27/11/2023 21:30Mon Nov 27 21:30:04 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 593

Much like those who think having 70% possession means you're the better side and should have won. Nothing like being at a game and seeing what happens for yourself, for real context.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By AgentEves28/11/2023 14:56Tue Nov 28 14:56:09 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 450

xG is a better stat than possession, imo.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By mr happy SFC27/11/2023 22:21Mon Nov 27 22:21:34 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 588

Possession stats are pointless.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Sev27/11/2023 22:46Mon Nov 27 22:46:02 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 592

Points stats are possession-less

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Chuds27/11/2023 21:33Mon Nov 27 21:33:07 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 577

Port Vale (1st, 73%), Oxford (3rd, 67%) and Fleetwood (5th, 62%) were all in the top five possession percentages at the weekend.

All three lost.

Edited by Chuds at 21:34:07 on 27th November 2023

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By RockyBottom27/11/2023 22:36Mon Nov 27 22:36:15 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 543

I agree regarding possession stats, but Fleetwood didn't just pass it across the back for the sake of it, they were still pretty direct and IMO we struggled to deal with their setup.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Owen B27/11/2023 19:28Mon Nov 27 19:28:00 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 624

xG was Fleetwood 2.00 vs Boro 0.53. Makes the scoreline funnier imho

Although, if you split the xG over 30-odd attempts, it is likely that none of them were clear cut. Average xG of 0.06 per shot, which is tiny.

Edited by Owen B at 19:29:48 on 27th November 2023

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By AgentEves28/11/2023 14:59Tue Nov 28 14:59:18 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 462

The problem is that examples like this are what make people dismiss xG as a valid stat.

Roulette is a less than 50% chance of winning if you play red/black. If you play once, get it right, and walk away, it doesn't mean the <50% probability is bullshit.

Yet that's how a lot of people act about xG.

Edited by AgentEves at 14:59:29 on 28th November 2023
Edited by AgentEves at 15:00:04 on 28th November 2023

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By SFCfox25/11/2023 17:32Sat Nov 25 17:32:47 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 1140

They definitely had chances, but we held strong. Especially during the last 20 when they were bombarding the box.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By jayess25/11/2023 19:07Sat Nov 25 19:07:03 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 959

We defended as though our lives depended on it. Pidge is immense and seems to keep on getting better.
Right up there with Robbo.

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Re: MT - Fleetwood

By Freemo25/11/2023 20:46Sat Nov 25 20:46:25 2023In response to Re: MT - Fleetwood Top of thread

Views: 880

I also like his origin story of only failing to keep Oldham up singlehandedly because his PASHUN got him banned and then Boro said "We'll be taking that thank you".

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Previous thread: Where will we be after the Barnsley game? by StirlingBoro9129/11/2023 20:40Wed Nov 29 20:40:55 2023view thread