Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Irritatingly fishy. The closing of the article addresses it directly.
"The whole thing started as a fun experiment to test some new modelling skills and got a bit out of hand. So it’s worth being clear what the numbers actually mean.
Bolton drew 0-0 at Stevenage and as mentioned earlier, pumped Boro 5-1 on their own patch. Across their two league meetings this year Bolton have heavily outscored Stevenage. The model looks at Stevenage’s defensive ratings, runs 20,000 simulations, and spits out a number suggesting that Stevenage would shade a Wembley final 56% of the time. That is simply what the model suggests.
My money is on Bolton this season. Football couldn’t give a fuck about statistical models."
Modelling the playoffs... by Nate17/4 17:04Fri Apr 17 17:04:13 2026view thread- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by SFCfox18/4 13:55Sat Apr 18 13:55:20 2026
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Sev18/4 14:07Sat Apr 18 14:07:56 2026
2 people - Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Balders18/4 14:23Sat Apr 18 14:23:56 2026
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Sev18/4 14:28Sat Apr 18 14:28:12 2026
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by SFCfox18/4 14:32Sat Apr 18 14:32:47 2026
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Freemo18/4 14:37Sat Apr 18 14:37:37 2026 1 person
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Owen B18/4 12:24Sat Apr 18 12:24:46 2026
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Sev17/4 17:19Fri Apr 17 17:19:42 2026 2 people
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by H Bomb17/4 17:57Fri Apr 17 17:57:30 2026
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Nate17/4 17:28Fri Apr 17 17:28:29 2026
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Tucks17/4 18:50Fri Apr 17 18:50:48 2026 1 person
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Freemo17/4 19:19Fri Apr 17 19:19:24 2026 4 people
- Re: Modelling the playoffs... by Nate17/4 19:21Fri Apr 17 19:21:16 2026