Re: Modelling the playoffs...
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Irritatingly fishy. The closing of the article addresses it directly.
"The whole thing started as a fun experiment to test some new modelling skills and got a bit out of hand. So it’s worth being clear what the numbers actually mean.
Bolton drew 0-0 at Stevenage and as mentioned earlier, pumped Boro 5-1 on their own patch. Across their two league meetings this year Bolton have heavily outscored Stevenage. The model looks at Stevenage’s defensive ratings, runs 20,000 simulations, and spits out a number suggesting that Stevenage would shade a Wembley final 56% of the time. That is simply what the model suggests.
My money is on Bolton this season. Football couldn’t give a fuck about statistical models."
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